Surveying the Business Scene: How Many Sell?
One of the most frequently-asked questions by those looking at the independent business scene is: “How many are for sale?” Right on the heels of that question comes another: “How many actually sell?”
To determine how many of these businesses are for sale at any one time, and what percentage of these get sold, it is necessary first to define terms by business category. The industry groups that account for the majority of small to mid-sized business sales are: manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, business and personal services, and household/miscellaneous services. Using these categories as components, the total number of businesses that apply to our “survey” is approximately 6.3 million.
Of this total, businesses that are for sale at any one time account for roughly 20 percent. There is naturally going to be a higher percentage of businesses for sale that employ four or less workers, but some independent business experts feel that fewer of these businesses–at least percentage-wise–sell than do the larger ones. Of those businesses with four or less employees, one expert’s estimate is that one out of six actually sells; with five to nine employees, about one out of five sells; and the trend continues.
Why is the actual-sale percentage lower for very small businesses? Many factors operate to affect this tendency. For example, the much smaller business may suffer more from unsubstantiated income or inaccurate financial information. Some owners may not be realistic in their pricing or simply aren’t serious about selling (problems that can threaten the sale of a business at any level). Still others may simply pay the bills and close the doors.
However, no matter what the percentages show, a business owner considering putting a company on the market should remember this: most businesses are salable if the seller is realistic in assessing value and is aware that the marketplace is the final arbiter of the selling price.
Rating Buyer Seriousness
Use the following criteria to separate the serious buyers from window-shoppers. (Add up plus points, subtract minus points. The serious buyer will rate a 6 or above.)
Minus Point Factors
- -4 needs outside financing (excluding home equity)
- -4 been looking for 6 months or more
- -3 no available cash
- -3 still working in corporate world
- -2 spouse not supportive of buying a business
- -2 uses a legal pad or clipboard and takes too many notes
- -2 feels leisurely about finding the “just-right” business
- -1 now renting (although has lived in area for some time)
- -1 under 25 or over 62
Plus Point Factors
- +3 does not have a job or has just resigned
- +3 understands that books and records are not the only indicators of value
- +2 has enough money to buy a business
- +2 no dependents
- +2 family member or close relative has been a business owner
- +2 willing to take the time to look without a lot of notice
- +1 location is not a prime consideration
- +1 age 25 to 62
- +1 skilled worker or professional
Family-Owned Businesses Do Have Choices
Family-owned businesses do have some options when it comes time to sell. Selling the entire business may not be the best choice when there are no other family members involved. Here are some choices to be considered:
Internal Transactions
- Hire a CEO – This approach is a management exit strategy in which the owner retires, lives off the company’s dividends and possibly sells the company many years later.
- Transition ownership within the family – Keeping the business in the family is a noble endeavor, but the parent seldom liquefies his investment in the short-term, and the son or daughter may run the company into the ground.
- Recapitalization – By recapitalizing the company by increasing the debt to as much as 70 percent of the capitalization, the owner(s) is/are able to liquefy most of their investment now with the intent to pay down the debt and sell the company later on.
- Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) – Many types of companies such as construction, engineering, and architectural are difficult to sell to a third party, because the employees are the major asset. ESOPs are a useful vehicle in this regard, but are usually sold in stages over a time period as long as ten years.
External Transactions
- Third party sale – The process could take six months to a year to complete. This method should produce a high valuation, sometimes all cash at closing and often the ability of the owner to walk away right after the closing.
- Complete sale over time – The owner can sell a minority interest now with the balance sold after maybe five years. Such an approach allows the owner to liquefy some of his investment now, continue to run the company, and hopefully receive a higher valuation for the company years later.
- Management buy-outs (MBOs) – Selling to the owners’ key employee(s) is an easy transaction and a way to reward them for years of hard work. Often the owner does not maximize the selling price, and usually the owner participates in the financing.
- Initial public offering (IPO) – In today’s marketplace, a company should have revenues of $100+ million to become a viable candidate. IPOs receive the highest valuation, but management must remain to run the company.
Source: “Buying & Selling Companies,” a presentation by Russ Robb, Editor, M&A Today
Who Is Today’s Buyer?
It has always been the American Dream to be independent and in control of one’s own destiny. Owning your own business is the best way to meet that goal. Many people dream about owning their own business, but when it gets right down to it, they just can’t make that leap of faith that is necessary to actually own one’s own business. Business brokers know from their experience that out of fifteen or so people who inquire about buying a business, only one will become an owner of a business.
Today’s buyer is most likely from the corporate world and well-educated, but not experienced in the business-buying process. These buyers are very number-conscious and detail-oriented. They require supporting documents for almost everything and will either use outside advisors or will do the verification themselves, but verify they will. A person who is realistic and understands that he or she can’t buy a business with a profit of millions for $10 down is probably serious. They must be able to make decisions and not depend on outside parties to do it for them. They must also have the financial resources available, have an open mind, and understand that owning one’s own business means being the proverbial chief cook and bottle washer.
Today’s buyers are usually what might be termed “event” driven. This means that the desire to own their own business is coupled with a need or reason. Maybe they have been downsized out of a job, they don’t want to be transferred, they travel too much, they see no future in their current position, etc. Many people have the desire, but not the reason. Most people don’t have the courage to quit a job and the paycheck to venture out on their own.
There are the perennial lookers. Those people who dream about owning their own business, are constantly looking, but will never leave the job to fulfill the dream. In fact, perspective business buyers who have been looking for over six months would probably fit into this category.
Business brokers spend a lot of time interviewing buyers. Here are just a few of the questions they will ask. The answers they receive will determine whether or not the prospective buyer is serious and qualified.
- Why is the person considering buying a business?
- Has the person ever owned their own business?
- How long has the person been looking?
- Is the person currently employed?
- What kind of business is the person looking for?
- Is he or she flexible in the kind of business?
- What are the most important considerations?
- How much money is available?
- What is the person’s timeframe?
- Does the person’s experience match the type of business under consideration?
- Who else is involved in the purchase decision?
- Is the person’s spouse positive about owning a business?
There are other questions and considerations, but those cited above reveal the depth of a buyer interview. Business brokers want to work only with buyers who are serious about purchasing a business. They don’t want to show a business to anyone who is not qualified, which is simply a waste of their time and the seller’s time.
Why Deals Fall Apart — Loss of Momentum
Deals fall apart for many reasons – some reasonable, others unreasonable.
For example:
• The seller doesn’t have all his financials up to date.
• The seller doesn’t have his legal/environmental/administrative affairs up to date.
• The buyer can’t come up with the necessary financing.
• The well known “surprise” surfaces causing the deal to fall apart.
The list could go on and on and this subject has been covered many times. However, there are more hidden reasons that threaten to end a deal usually half to three-quarters of the way to closing. These hidden reasons silently lead to a lack of or loss of momentum.
This essentially means a lack of forward progress. No one notices at first. Even the advisors who are busy doing the necessary due diligence and paperwork don’t notice the waning or missing momentum. Even though a slow-down in momentum may not be noticeable at first, an experienced business intermediary will catch it.
Let’s say a buyer can’t get through to the seller. The buyer leaves repeated messages, but the calls are not returned. (The reverse can also happen, but for our example we’ll assume the seller is unresponsive.) The buyer then calls the intermediary. The intermediary assures the buyer that he or she will call the seller and have him or her get in touch. The intermediary calls the seller and receives the same response. Calls are not returned. Even if calls are returned the seller may fail to provide documents, financial information, etc.
To the experienced intermediary the “red flag” goes up. Something is wrong. If not resolved immediately, the deal will lose its momentum and things can fall apart quite rapidly. What is this hidden element that causes a loss of momentum? It is generally not price or anything concrete.
It often boils down to an emotional issue. The buyer or seller gets what we call “cold feet.” Often it is the seller who has decided that he really doesn’t want to sell and doesn’t know what to do. It may also be that the buyer has discovered something that is quite concerning and doesn’t know how to handle it. Maybe the chemistry between buyer and seller is just not there for one or the other of them. Whatever the reason, the reluctant party just tries to ignore the proceedings and lack of momentum occurs.
The sooner this loss of momentum is addressed, the better the chance for the deal to continue to closing. Because the root of the problem is often an emotional issue, it has to be faced directly. An advisor, the intermediary or someone close to the person should immediately make a personal visit. Another suggestion is to get the buyer and seller together for lunch or dinner, preferably the latter. Regardless of how it happens, the loss of momentum should be addressed if the sale has any chance of closing.